Moderna Inc. (MRNA) beat expectations in Q2 FY2026 on revenue of $145.0M versus the $102.9M estimate (+2.1% YoY) and EPS of $-1.97. The next Moderna Inc. (MRNA) earnings date is Nov 5, 2026. Below is the full Moderna Inc. earnings breakdown — the risk-adjusted verdict, price forecast, technicals, options and hedge-fund 13F holdings, decoded in plain English.
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) Earnings Analysis — key stats
Next earnings date
Nov 5, 2026
Latest reported quarter
Q2 FY2026
Earnings verdict
Beat
EPS beat rate
8 of last 8 (quarters above estimate)
Avg next-day move
±6.6% (over the last 8 reports)
Post-earnings direction
Up 4 / Down 4 (of the last 8 reports)
Implied move (next report)
±178.6% (options-derived · into Nov 5, 2026)
Institutional ownership
88.8% (13F as of 2026-06-30)
Top 10 holders
51.8% (of shares outstanding)
Insider activity
4 buys / 8 sells (recent Form 4 filings)
Revenue
$145.0M (vs $102.9M est · +40.9% surprise · +2.1% YoY)
EPS
$-1.97 (vs $-2.03 est · +3.0% surprise · -8.0% YoY)
Share price
$138.89 (-4.3%)
Market cap
$55.1B
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) Earnings Analysis — beat / miss history
Quarter
Revenue
EPS
EPS surprise
Next-day move
Verdict
Q3 FY2026
$145.0M vs $102.9M est
$-1.97 vs $-2.03 est
+3.0%
-4.8%
Beat
Q2 FY2026
$389.0M vs $236.4M est
$-3.40 vs $-4.45 est
+23.6%
+3.0%
Beat
Q1 FY2026
$678.0M vs $635.2M est
$-2.11 vs $-2.54 est
+16.9%
+9.5%
Beat
Q4 FY2025
$1.0B vs $920.9M est
$-0.51 vs $-1.87 est
+72.7%
+4.2%
Beat
Q3 FY2025
$142.0M vs $893.3M est
$-2.13 vs $-2.99 est
+28.8%
-6.5%
Mixed
Q2 FY2025
$107.0M vs $116.7M est
$-2.52 vs $-2.92 est
+13.7%
-3.3%
Mixed
Q1 FY2025
$956.0M vs $942.8M est
$-2.50 vs $-2.68 est
+6.7%
+12.0%
Mixed
Q4 FY2024
$1.9B vs $1.3B est
$0.03 vs $-1.91 est
+101.6%
-9.6%
Beat
Top institutional holders
Holder
% outstanding
Shares
Value
QoQ change
Fmr LLC
13.1%
51.9M
$3.6B
+13.5%
Blackrock, INC.
7.7%
30.6M
$2.1B
+3.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
5.9%
23.2M
$1.6B
+1.5%
Capital World Investors
5.6%
22.3M
$1.6B
+19.1%
Baillie Gifford & CO
4.6%
18.2M
$1.3B
-8.9%
State Street Corp
4.0%
15.7M
$1.1B
+5.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3.9%
15.6M
$1.1B
-0.2%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
2.5%
9.7M
$678.8M
+2.9%
Morgan Stanley
2.4%
9.5M
$668.0M
+12.6%
Theleme Partners Llp
2.0%
8.1M
$564.3M
+0.1%
Recent insider transactions
Insider
Role
Date
Type
Shares
Value
Bancel Stephane
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
2026-08-05
Buy
499K
$9.6M
Bancel Stephane
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
2026-08-05
Sell
147K
$8.3M
Bancel Stephane
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
2026-08-06
Buy
252K
$4.8M
Bancel Stephane
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
2026-08-05
Sell
125K
$7.1M
Bancel Stephane
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
2026-08-05
Sell
40K
$2.3M
Bancel Stephane
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
2026-08-05
Sell
187K
$11.0M
Bancel Stephane
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
2026-08-05
Sell
371K
$7.1M
Bancel Stephane
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
2026-08-05
Sell
128K
$2.5M
What you'll find
Next Moderna Inc. (MRNA) earnings date, the expected move and the estimates priced in
A clear Beat / Miss / In-line / Mixed verdict the moment Moderna Inc. reports
Revenue & EPS versus estimates, guidance and segment trends
Multi-lens price forecast — analyst, quant, technical and options views
Deep research: red flags, risk decoder and earnings-call sentiment
Technicals, options / implied volatility and unusual-activity signals
Hedge-fund and legendary-investor 13F holdings in Moderna Inc. (MRNA)
Side-by-side peer and historical earnings comparison
Frequently asked questions
When is Moderna Inc.'s next earnings date?
Moderna Inc.'s (MRNA) next scheduled earnings date is Nov 5, 2026. Magnisto shows the confirmed date, the options-implied expected move and the revenue and EPS estimates Wall Street is modeling into the report.
Did Moderna Inc. (MRNA) beat or miss earnings?
In Q2 FY2026, Moderna Inc. (MRNA) posted beat results — revenue of $145.0M versus the $102.9M estimate (+40.9% surprise) and EPS of $-1.97 versus $-2.03 expected (+3.0% surprise). Magnisto decodes every Moderna Inc. (MRNA) report into a clear Beat, Miss, In-line or Mixed verdict and checks whether guidance was raised, held or cut.
How often does Moderna Inc. beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters, Moderna Inc. (MRNA) beat Wall Street EPS estimates 8 times, most recently a beat result in Q3 FY2026. Magnisto tracks every Moderna Inc. (MRNA) quarter's revenue and EPS versus consensus and grades each one Beat, Miss, In-line or Mixed at a unified ±2% threshold.
How much does Moderna Inc. stock move after earnings?
Over its last 8 quarterly reports, Moderna Inc. (MRNA) moved an average of ±6.6% the day after earnings — ranging from -9.6% (Q4 FY2024) to +12.0% (Q1 FY2025). The stock rose after 4 of those 8 reports and fell after 4. Heading into its next report on Nov 5, 2026, options-implied volatility is pricing in a move of roughly ±178.6% (derived). Magnisto tracks the realized post-earnings move for every Moderna Inc. (MRNA) quarter alongside the beat/miss verdict — past moves don't predict the next one.
Who are the largest shareholders of Moderna Inc.?
Institutions hold about 88.8% of Moderna Inc.'s (MRNA) shares outstanding as of the 2026-06-30 13F quarter. Its largest institutional holders include Fmr LLC (13.1%), Blackrock, INC. (7.7%), Vanguard Capital Management LLC (5.9%). Magnisto lists Moderna Inc.'s (MRNA) top 13F holders with each stake size and its quarter-over-quarter change.
Are insiders buying or selling Moderna Inc. (MRNA)?
In the most recent Form 4 filings Magnisto tracks, Moderna Inc. (MRNA) insiders recorded 4 purchases and 8 sales — net selling. Insider transactions are one signal among many and are often routine (option exercises or scheduled 10b5-1 sales), so Magnisto shows the raw feed for you to judge.
What is the forecast for Moderna Inc. (MRNA) stock?
Magnisto blends analyst price targets, quantitative research, technical trend and options-implied moves into a scenario range for Moderna Inc. (MRNA), anchored to the current $138.89 share price, so you can weigh the bull, base and bear cases for Moderna Inc. side by side.
Is Moderna Inc. (MRNA) a buy right now?
Magnisto does not give buy or sell tips. It gives you the institutional-grade evidence — the verdict, valuation, risks, technicals and hedge-fund 13F flows — so you can decide whether Moderna Inc. fits your own thesis and risk profile. This is research, not investment advice.